Optimistic Overconfidence in Assessing Trial Risks
Disputing parties negotiating for a settlement need to decide whether to settle or litigate the case. A rational litigant would base this decision an assesment of the likely trial outcome, which serves as the BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) to the settlement. Do attorneys and litigants accurately predict case outcomes? Recent research tell us that often they do not. Psychological biases in judgement and decision making may lead to costly decision errors by litigants.
Randall Kiser is an internationally acclaimed researcher and consultant on legal decision making and trial risk assessments. Kiser was the lead author of the largest multivariate study of settlement decision making, “Let’s Not Make A Deal: An Empirical Study of Decision Making in Unsuccessful Settlement Negotiations” (Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, Vol. 5, Issue 3, September 2008). The New York Times describes that study as “the biggest of its kind to date” and notes that it “raises provocative questions about how lawyers and clients make decisions.” Go to the study here.
On April 21, Kiser gives a guest lecture about "Optimistic Overconfidence in Assessing Trial Risks: The US Experience and Suggested Correctives"
Dispute resolution
The lecture will be of interest to everyone concerned with dispute resolution, civil procedure, attorney practice and law in general.
The event is open to everyone.
Welcome!
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